Weighting, Spread, and Confidence

Ryan O’Loughlin’s work on distinguishing ensemble spread from genuine epistemic confidence in climate projections.
Author

Ryan J. O’Loughlin

Modified

August 30, 2025

Keywords

philosophy of science, climate models, uncertainty, trust without truth, decision-making under uncertainty

Details coming soon. Separates spread-narrowing from genuine epistemic confidence; implications for ensemble practice & communication.

Updated: August 30, 2025